In a country where unlicensed taxis run first, Japan waits for the rules to be established. Failure in overseas expansion is determined by "waiting until everything is in order."
In a country where unlicensed taxis run first, Japan waits for the rules to be established. Failure in overseas expansion is determined by "waiting until everything is in order."
In Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, the normal way to take a taxi was to raise your hand to a passing car, negotiate the price with the driver who stopped, and then get in. Even in countries where ride-hailing apps like Uber and Grab are well-established, local "unlicensed taxis" still operate alongside them as if it were perfectly normal. You encounter such scenes all over the world when traveling.
When Uber first arrived in Japan over 10 years ago, a black Lexus was there to pick me up. The driver opened the door for me. I tried it because it seemed interesting, but to others, I probably looked like "someone who was picked up in a car with a driver." That felt good in its own way.
When I went to Hakone about two years ago, I was surprised by the large number of foreign tourists. At the same time, I was also surprised by the scarcity of taxis. There were clearly not enough. On the other hand, I saw unlicensed taxis, apparently operated by Chinese people themselves, everywhere. In the museum parking lot, an unlicensed taxi backed into the car in front of me. What a nuisance.
In Japan, unlicensed taxis are illegal, and considering the compensation and safety issues in the event of an accident, I don't want to condone them. However, there's something I don't want to overlook: the fact that where there's a deficiency, someone will fill it, regardless of whether legal frameworks catch up or not. And the same pattern is happening on a much larger scale in other parts of the world.
To put it bluntly, I believe that most failures in overseas expansion are not determined after actually going to the country, but rather "while waiting for the rules and conditions to be put in place."
Unlicensed taxis are not a sign of "illegal demand," but rather a sign of "insufficient supply."
When I saw tourists waiting for taxis in Hakone, the phrase "demand survey" came to mind. Even without conducting a survey, the answer is already there, driving on the roads.
This is how I see demand: Demand is a force that acts spontaneously, even outside of established systems. It doesn't arise simply because permission is granted; it takes action because there are people who are genuinely in need. I believe that unlicensed taxis are not a loophole in the law, but rather a sign that supply is insufficient.
It's not that the Japanese system is doing nothing. The "Private Vehicle Utilization Project," overseen by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, which is the so-called Japanese version of ride-sharing, is a framework in which taxi companies manage operations while utilizing local private drivers (according to the guidance of the Kanto Transport Bureau of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism). As a design to ensure safety, it makes sense. However, how quickly it can reach the "shortage" on the ground is another matter.
The world is moving forward while the institutional debate continues.
This speed difference becomes even clearer when you look at self-driving taxis. According to reports, Waymo will be handling 500,000 paid rides per week in 10 US cities by April 2026. That's a tenfold increase from 50,000 rides per week two years ago.
Japan hasn't been stagnant. On September 15, 2026, GO, Waymo, and Nihon Kotsu announced they had agreed to a strategic partnership to commercialize autonomous taxis in Tokyo. They aim to operate Japan's first Level 4 fully driverless taxis by 2027, with plans to gradually expand to a fleet of 100 vehicles. They have also been conducting public road tests in seven wards of Tokyo since 2025.
I think Nihon Kotsu and GO made a swift decision to partner with cutting-edge companies overseas. I honestly think it's a good move. Even so, I still have a feeling that they're a few steps behind. The reason is simple: next to their achievement of 500,000 rides per week, Japan still only has a plan to "aim for 100 vehicles by 2027." There's a gap between plans and actual results when you put them side by side.
Failure in overseas expansion is determined by "waiting until everything is in order before acting."
Common reasons cited for failure in overseas expansion include insufficient market research, poor selection of local partners, and misinterpretation of legal regulations. I believe all of these are true. However, what concerns me when I observe other companies is what happens before that. They try to prepare everything before going overseas, but by the time everything is ready, the same market has already been taken over by someone else.
Preparation is about creating the minimum necessary footing to get things in order while you're moving, not a reason to stay still. If you misunderstand this, caution will simply turn into slowness.
Having worked in advertising for over a quarter of a century, I've seen typesetting go digital, submissions move online, and then to the cloud. Change has always been irreversible; there's no going back. The changes brought about by AI are faster and bigger than any of them. In my opinion, it's like climbing a downward escalator. The escalator won't stop while we wait for the rules to be put in place.
The faster you move, the more important your brand's "core" is.
However, it's not simply a matter of moving fast. Just like with the collision involving the unlicensed taxi, if you rush ahead, there will inevitably be situations where you'll be held responsible later. I believe this is where branding comes in.
When it comes to overseas expansion, you can change your local strategies as you go. What you shouldn't change is the core principle: "Who are we, and to whom in that country will we become a special presence?" If this core principle is decided beforehand, you can move quickly without becoming a fragmented company in each country.
Should you wait for the rules to be put in place, or should you establish a framework and refine it as you go? What is your company waiting for right now? I'm always happy to work with you, starting from the point of putting that into words.
FAQ
Q. Is it acceptable for companies to imitate illegal activities like unlicensed taxis?
A. No. Compliance with the law is a prerequisite, and I'm not saying "run illegally." What I mean is that while you wait for the rules to be put in place, there are plenty of legal verifications you can do, such as small experiments, on-site observations, and finding partners. By the way, when doing business overseas, be sure to thoroughly investigate whether it is legal or illegal. Obviously, there are many differences from Japan.
Q. What should be decided first when expanding overseas?
A. More important than a perfect plan is having a clear vision of "who you will be when you're there." While strategies can be adapted locally, without a clear vision, you'll appear as a different company in each country. Also, regarding overseas business expansion, be aware that some businesses are not permitted under the Foreign Investment 100% license, so research this thoroughly beforehand.
Q. Is Japan really "behind the curve"?
A. It depends on the field. This self-driving taxi is just one of the fields where I felt this way. There are companies in Japan that are moving quickly. I think the important thing is for companies to check for themselves whether they are simply "waiting" for the solution.
After starting his own business at the age of 26, he has over 20 years of management experience in the design and branding fields. In 2016, he moved with his family to the Philippines and established a local IT outsourcing company, leading its global expansion. Currently, as a "GLOBAL BRANDING AGENCY," he supports the growth of companies while also actively working on organizational reforms within his own company. Based on the real-world struggles and firsthand information he has faced in organizational development and overseas management, he shares practical branding and organizational theories that are thoroughly aligned with the perspective of business leaders.
